Service Plays Thursday 4/15/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> New Addition to Service Play Forum..Specifically for posting additional topics.

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

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I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

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Thank you, wilheim




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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIGFELLA SPORTS

NHL

4* Montreal Canadiens +235
4* Boston Bruins +150

 

[Spence]

Football Direct/Sports Betting Professor Soccer

League: Spain La Liga Primera

Valencia v Athletico Bilbao**
Win bet Valencia

**system play
--
System Plays Record since 3/26--
This League: 3-3

System Plays Record--
All Leagues since 3/26: 15-17

Non-System Plays Record--
All Leagues since 3/26: 4-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets

Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals (-275, 6)

The Montreal Canadiens are clear underdogs in their first round matchup against the Washington Capitals, but you wouldn’t know it by listening to what Thomas Plekanec has to say about Washington’s goaltending situation.

“It’s not as though we are facing (Martin) Brodeur or (Ryan Miller)”, Plekanec told La Presse. “They don’t have a dominant goaltender. When you look at the goaltending matchup in this series it favors our team. I just believe that our goaltending is more solid than theirs.

“I’m not saying their goalies are bad. I’m just saying our goalies are better.”

Statistically speaking, Plekanec does have a point. The Canadiens’ likely starter, Jaroslav Halak (.924 save percentage, 2.40 goals against average), performed better than Capitals starter Jose Theodore (.911 save percentage, 2.82 goals against average) during the regular season.

And who can forget Theodore’s lackluster performance in the first game of the playoffs last year, surrendering four goals on 21 shots to the New York Rangers and getting bench for the next 13 playoff games.

But Halak clearly lacks postseason experience. His three career playoff outings pale in comparison to Theodore’s 49, which includes a series win over the top-seeded Boston Bruins while he was still with the Habs.

To make matters worse, the Capitals and the Canadiens boast the two best power plays in the NHL. In the four meeting between these two teams this season, a total of 28 goals were scored, eight of those coming on the man advantage.

Pick: Over


Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks (-200, 5.5)

The Vancouver Canucks may have the most prolific offense in the Western Conference, but their back end has been a source of concern for some time.

The defense should welcome Shane O’Brien back from a mild shoulder injury, but will be without Willie Mitchell and Brad Lukowich. Aaron Rome and Sami Salo are both listed as questionable for Thursday’s game, although the always enigmatic Salo claims he’s doing just fine.

“Was there something wrong with me?” Salo told reporters when asked about the undisclosed injury that kept him out of the last two games of the regular season. “That was you guys who made it up. Personal reasons. Everything’s good. Something came up. I couldn’t play against Calgary (on Saturday), but everything has all settled down. There wasn’t an injury if you guys want to know that.”

This wouldn’t be the first time Salo has tried to dupe reporters. During the 2007 playoffs, he told the media he had the flu even though head coach Alain Vigneault admitted he was suffering from a torso injury.

With or without Salo in the lineup Thursday, the Kings will look to take advantage of Vancouver’s depleted defensive unit. They did just that the last time the two teams met, earning an 8-3 win at the Staples Center.

Los Angeles might be a little nervous early in its first postseason appearance since 2002, but should still be able to stick with the Canucks.

Pick: Kings

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins (-130, 9)

The Twins have exited the Metrodome and now play outdoors at MLB’s newest ballpark – Target Field.

A Yale physicist released a report that predicts runs will be tougher to come by for the Twins this season because of the switch from indoors to outdoors.

“Cold air is more dense and thus more resistant than hot air,” Robert Adair said. “The same fly ball travels about four feet less for every 10-degree drop in temperature.”

If Adair’s numbers are accurate, less distance on fly balls is going to result in fewer home runs, triples and doubles and ultimately lower game totals.

The theory has proved to be correct so far as the Red Sox and Twins played under the posted total of 9 in the ballpark opener and pushed in the second game of the series. The second game would have gone well under had the teams’ bullpens not surrendered four runs in the eighth.

There is a chance of rain in this game tomorrow and runs should be hard to come by.

Pick: Under


Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (-165)

Carlos Zambrano is a pitcher that tends to wear his emotions on his sleeve.

In his opening start, Big Z gave up eight earned runs (six in the first inning) in only 1.1 innings on the mound and he may have been a little amped up.

"Basically, this was my first start,” Zambrano said after his second start where he gave up only three runs in a winning effort. “I was excited today. I was hungry to go out there. My first outing was not good. I was anxious to go out there and pitch my game, and I did it today."

Jeff Suppan will be making his first start of the season for the Brewers after coming off the 15-day disabled list. Zambrano is 4 for 9 with three RBIs lifetime against Suppan while Chicago first baseman Derrek Lee is a career .431 hitter against the righty.

Look for the Cubbies to pull out the brooms and complete the sweep of Milwaukee on Thursday.

Pick: Cubs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Flyers Wednesday night.

Thursday it's the Bruins. The deficit is 125 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL

Season: 423-283 (.599)

Eastern Conference Playoffs, 1st Round
Game 1, best-of-7 series
WASHINGTON 4, Montreal 2
Boston vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Western Conference Playoffs, 1st Round
Game 1, best-of-7 series
VANCOUVER 4, Los Angeles 3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jr. O'Donnell (RedZone Sports)

free internet play: Canucks/Kings over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Merril

Dodgers
Astros/Cardinals Under 9
Braves/Padres Under 7.5
Orioles/A's Under 8.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Betting Professor

Atlanta Braves -130

Cincinnati Reds +141

Chicago White Sox +116

 

[Sleez]

Lance's Lock
Pick: The Twins -125
Overall: 943-833-35

Current Streak: 3 losses

 

[Ryangene]

CAPPERS ACCESS
Cardinals(RL)
Blue Jays(RL)

 

[Ryangene]

Burns *10* TOP NL TOTAL (Day) **7-0 L7, 9-1 L10**

Under Padres

 

[Ryangene]

*EARLY* Burns' Afternoon ANNIHILATOR

Twins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GAMBLERS DATA
Angels +165

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Wiz's Daily Free Pick

Under 9 runs bet. Oakland and Baltimore

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettor's best friend: Thursday's wagering tips

Lines off the board

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians – C.J. Wilson was scratched from his start on Wednesday because of food poisoning. Wilson or Matt Harrison will be slipped into the rotation spot for Thursday’s game but the Rangers starter is uncertain.

The total in the Cubs game hasn’t been posted because of the wind direction being unknown.

Lines to keep an eye on

Philadelphia opened as -265 home chalk over the Nationals but that moneyline has dropped to -225 in some markets.

The Angels-Yankees total has dropped from an opener of 10 down to 9.5 at most shops.

The total in the Reds-Marlins game has dropped a half run from its opener and now stands at 8.5. The first two games in this series went over.

Weather report

There is a 30 percent chance of rain from isolated thunderstorms during the first couple hours of the Red Sox-Twins game. Wind is expected to blow out of the southwest from 15-17 mph.

Who’s hot

St. Louis is off to a 6-2 start, earning 4.02 units on the moneyline.

The Capitals are 6-1 in their last seven outings.

Who’s not

The Kings are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games, dropping 5.83 units on the moneyline.

Houston is 0-8 to start the 2010 season.

Key stat

1 – Number of errors the Twins have committed this season. Minnesota has a new double-play tandem up the middle this season with Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy. The teams is 6-3 on the season.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins was put on the 15-day disabled list with a calf strain on Wednesday. Manager Charlie Manuel said that Rollins would “be out some time” and that he’s “hurt pretty bad”. Juan Castro at 37 years young will replace Rollins at shortstop and Shane Victorino is expected to claim the leadoff spot in the Philadelphia lineup. The Phils complete their series with the Nats on Thursday.

Notable quotable

"Bill's not worth a (expletive). To get this (expletive) stadium, I needed to bring his (butt) in."

-- Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones speaking in a video about Bill Parcells. Watch the drunken video here.

Tips and notes

- Scott Kazmir will make his first start of the season on Thursday but you have to wonder if the Angels have much confidence in him. Last week, Kazmir told MLB.com that he was "very surprised" to be placed on the disabled list and that he felt ready to pitch that day. Kazmir hasn’t been the dominating pitcher he once was, posting a 3.83 ERA last year with a lower-than-normal strikeout total.

- If you are looking for a darkhorse pick for this week’s Verizon Heritage golf tournament, Boo Weekley could be your man. Weekley won the event in 2007 and 2008 and finished T13 last three. Harbour Town Golf Links obviously suits his eye, and Weekley is one of Covers Expert Matt *****'s picks to win at +3000. Weekly hasn’t been playing all that well this season but has had more than two weeks of rest and preparation for this tourney.

- The Angels placed closer Brian Fuentes (0.00 ERA) on the 15-day DL and that’s the worst thing that could happen to this team. L.A.’s bullpen has been awful this season, compiling a 5.68 ERA through nine games. Fernando Rodney is now the closer and he posted a 4.40 ERA in the same role with the Tigers last year. In four inning of work this season, Rodney has given up three runs which equates to a 12.00 ERA – the highest among Angels relievers. It might be wise to take a look at the 5-inning line if backing L.A. because this bullpen cannot be trusted right now.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Arizona (5-3) at L.A. Dodgers (3-5)

The Diamondbacks trot out ace Dan Haren (1-1, 3.95 ERA) for the third time already this season, this time at Dodger Stadium for a clash against the division-rival Dodgers and Hiroki Kuroda (1-0, 0.00 ERA).

The Dodgers powered their way to a 9-5 series-opening win Monday, but Arizona even the series with a 9-7, 11-inning victory Wednesday. Los Angeles is still 6-2 in its last eight at home, 73-35 in its last 108 as a home chalk and 8-1 in its last nine Thursday contests.

Arizona, which started the season with a 4-2 homestand, is still just 9-22 in its last 31 road games, including 6-17 on the road against right-handed starters. Also, it has lost five of eight to N.L. West squads.

The Dodgers won 11 of the 18 meetings with Arizona last season, and going back to 2008, they are on a 17-8 roll in this rivalry, going 12-4 in the last 16 clashes at Dodger Stadium.

Haren shut down the Padres on opening day, allowing one run on three hits over seven innings of a 6-3 win, but he was battered around by the Pirates on Saturday, giving up six runs (five earned) in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 home loss. Behind Haren, Arizona is on rolls of 6-2 on Thursday and 7-2 when he pitches the third game of a series, but they are just 1-5 in his last six roadies and 1-4 in his last five as a pup.

Against the Dodgers, Haren is 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 10 career starts spanning 62 2/3 innings. He saw them four times in 2009 and allowed three runs of less in each outing, but Arizona split the four contests.

Kuroda had a superb outing in Florida on Friday, allowing one unearned run on five hits over eight innings, striking out seven in a 7-3 victory. With the right-hander on the hill, Los Angeles is on surges of 9-4 overall, 4-1 at home, 8-3 as a favorite and 7-1 against teams with a winning record

Kuroda is 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA in six career starts against Arizona, and he faced the D’Backs twice last season, allowing a combined three runs on six hits in 10 innings of work, but the Dodgers lost both outings, 3-2 at home and 4-3 in Arizona.

Arizona is on several “over” streaks, including 5-0 overall, 6-1 on Thursdays, 4-0 in Haren’s last four overall and 9-4-1 in his last 14 road starts. The Dodgers are on “over” runs of 21-8-2 overall, 8-3-1 at home, 7-1 in the third game of a series, 17-5-1 against teams with a winning record and 9-3-1 against N.L. West foes. However, with Kuroda on the bump, L.A. carries “under” streaks of 5-1 at home and 6-2 against N.L. West teams.

In this rivalry, the under has been the play in five of nine overall and three of six when Haren is on the hill. However, the first two games of this series have easily cleared the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS


AMERICAN LEAGUE

L.A. Angels (3-6) at N.Y. Yankees (5-3)

The Angels conclude a three-game series at Yankee Stadium when they send left-hander Scott Kazmir (2-2, 1.73 ERA with the Angels last season) to the hill for the first time this season opposite Philip Hughes (8-3, 3.03 ERA in 2009), who is also making his first start of the young campaign.

Los Angeles scored a 5-3 victory on Wednesday after losing the series opener 7-5 Tuesday afternoon. It was just the Angels’ second win since opening day and stopped a three-game New York winning streak. The Halos also ended their five-game losing streak at Yankee Stadium, and they remain just 3-7 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including last October’s American League Championship Series that New York won in six games.

The Angels are still on slides of 2-6 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-4 as a road ‘dog and 2-5 against winning teams, but they are on positive runs of 36-17 on Thursdays and 46-17 in the third game of a series. New York is on positive swings of 57-24 overall, 42-11 at home, 40-12 as a home favorite, 7-3 against A.L. West teams, 39-17 against southpaws, 72-32 in the third game of a series.

Kazmir was acquired from Tampa Bay at last year’s trade deadline and made six regular-season starts with the Angels, yielding two runs or fewer in five of the outings. The veteran is 6-5 with a 2.67 ERA in 14 career starts against New York, 12 of which came in a Tampa Bay uniform. However, that doesn’t include a start in Game 4 of the ALCS last year, when Kazmir got drilled for four runs on six hits in just four innings of a 10-1 loss in Anaheim. Prior to that, Kazmir had held the Yankees to three earned runs or less in nine consecutive starts.

Hughes pitched in the set-up relief role for the final five months of the regular and postseason last year, with his last start coming on May 31 in Cleveland when he gave up four runs on five hits in five innings of a 5-4 loss to the Indians. The right-hander has faced the Angels four times (one start), going 2-0 with a 5.23 ERA as he’s surrendered seven runs (six earned) on seven hits in 10 1/3 innings of work. His lone start against Los Angeles was in 2007 and he allowed five runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings, walking five in the 7-6 loss.

Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 35-18-3 overall, 17-5 on the road, 20-9-2 against right-handed starters and 6-2 in Kazmir’s last eight outings. The Yankees have soared “over” the total in 12 of 17 overall, seven of eight as a favorite, four straight against southpaws and 18 of 26 on Thursday, but they are on “under” runs of 11-2-1 at home, 35-16-3 as a home favorite and 3-1-2 in Hughes’ last six home starts.

In this rivalry, the “under” is 5-1 in the last six clashes in the Big Apple.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL MLB

Arizona at LA Dodgers
The Diamondbacks look to build on their 5-1 record in Dan Haren's last 6 starts against teams with a losing record. Arizona is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100)

Game 901-902: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 13.936; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.744
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-230); Over

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.362; Cubs (Zambrano) 14.017
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+160); N/A

Game 905-906: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Olsen) 14.386; Philadelphia (Happ) 16.203
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-240); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-240); Over

Game 907-908: NY Mets at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.091; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.745
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+180); Under

Game 909-910: Atlanta at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.179; San Diego (Latos) 14.556
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-135); Over

Game 911-912: Cincinnati at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 15.120; Florida (Johnson) 16.180
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-150); Over

Game 913-914: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 16.358; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.667
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Under

Game 915-916: Texas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 14.901; Cleveland (Huff) 14.774
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: Boston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 16.312; Minnesota (Liriano) 15.963
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over

Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 16.305; Toronto (Eveland) 15.197
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110); Under

Game 921-922: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.450; NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.989
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-180); Under

Game 923-924: Baltimore at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 13.659; Oakland (Sheets) 15.570
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-150); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL NHL

Boston at Buffalo

The Bruins look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 road games. Boston is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+150)

Game 59-60: Montreal at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.646; Washington 11.918
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-275); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-275); Over

Game 61-62: Boston at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.393; Buffalo 11.865
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-170); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+150); Under

Game 63-64: Los Angeles at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.412; Vancouver 10.944
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+170); Under